Droughts (Indonesia) #2

Case Study 1: Drought in Indonesia (1997/98)


The 1997-98 El Niño had significant social and economic implications for Indonesia. A large part of the country suffered from severe drought, resulting in a huge shortfall in rice production that necessitated the import of over five million metric tons of rice to ensure food availability to the economically weaker sections of the society. In the forestry sector, the effects of large-scale forest fires during 1997-98 were unprecedented, damaging more than 9.7 million ha of forest area. The smoke and Trans boundary haze from these fires affected not only Indonesia but also other Southeast Asian countries, in particular Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia and Singapore. In addition to impacts on the agriculture and forestry sectors, the 1997-98 drought and fires also significantly affected other sectors such as transportation, tourism and public health.

Given that the linkage between El Niño events and drought in Indonesia has been well established scientifically, it is important to analyze why this scientific understanding did not translate into effective countermeasures essential to mitigate the worst effects of El Niño 1997-98. This report presents an analysis of the impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño event on Indonesia and identifies lessons learned that will be helpful in dealing with future extreme climate events.

Impacts on agriculture and food security:

Rice production in Indonesia is heavily influenced by the monsoon rain patterns, which have an important bearing on agricultural performance during the main (wet) and secondary (dry) seasons. The wet season normally extends from October to March and produces 60 percent of the country's annual rice crop and half of its maize, soybean and groundnuts. The dry season covers April to September, during which the remaining annual crops are produced.

The rainfall anomalies during the wet season 1997-98 caused a decrease in area under rice cultivation by 380,000 ha (3.4% below the previous wet season). Farmers planted maize as a compensatory crop in areas where paddy could not be planted. The switching over to maize was to the extent of 266,000 ha more than the area normally cropped with maize (an 8% increase from the previous wet season). The reduced rice production, coinciding with the economic crisis which began in 1997, led to a 300 percent increase in the price of rice. The government of Indonesia imported over 5 million metric tons of rice in order to maintain price levels and to ensure the availability of food to the economically weaker sections of the population.